Still, Hernandez has quite a resume over the last decade hes been named to six All-Star teams, won 156 games for a perennially-losing franchise that hasnt sniffed the postseason, and hes won a Cy Young award to go with multiple ERA titles. The oldest and wisest twin. The best-of-three series would not go in the Cardinals' favor, falling 2-0 to the eventual World Series participant. "Adam Wainwright is going to have such an interesting Hall of Fame case once he retires." - Connor Looker Throughout his career, Wainwright has won a World Series and has been selected to. Flahertys exhibition-season debut was supposed to happen Saturday, but now the assignment has been switched to Sunday. One other thing to note: since my reference point for old WAR and JAWS figures dates back to January 2021, some portion of these players gains may be due to updates to bWAR itself, particularly via changes to 19 and 20 park factors and tweaks to 201720 Defensive Runs Saved that were announced in March, but also due to a second update to 2020 park factors that just went live on Tuesday. Updated: Friday, March 3, 2023 11:11 PM ET, Park Factors Injuries have plagued Adam Wainwright more than the other pitchers on this list; hes going to be 36 in a few months and hes logged just 1,800 innings due to Tommy John surgery (2011) and an Achilles tendon rupture (2015). We didn't recognize that password reset code. Adam Wainwright is not a Hall of Famer yet. He struck out 14 in his MLB debut and it seemed evident that he and Bryce Harper were going to lead the team to not only a World Series championship, but multiple titles. . Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer just had seasons that good in 2018. However, their overall record forced the Cards to play a Wild Card series against Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies. At 41-years-old, Adam Wainwright's statistics suggest no signs of slowing down. However, per his stats, it would not be surprising if he is inducted in his first year of eligibility. . ago. Adam's parents had a rocky marriage, and they split up when he was around seven years old. His monitor score is only an 87. But at least it wont be historically egregious. Its an impressive resume, and one that has him as a top-10 starting pitcher of the last decade, but its just not enough for Cooperstown. I sincerely hope Flaherty is fine and that theres no reason for concern. On one hand, its spring training and a lot of pitchers get pounded early in exhibition games as they prepare for the run-up to the regular season. Ad Choices The wins, strikeouts, ERA and innings were his best since 2014, which appeared to be the last full year of his peak. This is the first time since 2010 that all three are in . Even 250 wins is a rare accomplishment at this point. Only Clemens, Johnson, Carlton and Greg Maddux are the only pitchers who have won more. Sure there are. Adam Wainwright is one of the more curious pitchers in baseball, and a recent thread raised a couple questions to me. As for R-JAWS, hes entered the top 20, but as he approaches both his 34th birthday and free agency, the question of how many more years hell be trusted to handle the ninth inning looms. Upon losing in the Wild Card round, the franchise's attention shifted to the offseason and what will happen to some of their aging players. That seems to be a pretty good baseline.. Flaherty is calm. Aroldis Chapman (18.5 WAR | 19.9 WPA | 12.0 WPA/LI | 16.8 R-JAWS, +0.6 R-JAWS). Wainwright did not factor into the decision, allowing five runs on four hits in four innings. What a different story we could be telling about 'Waino' had he stayed in Atlanta. Its an unfortunate injury that was sustained to of all places his throwing shoulder. Adam Wainwright will make history as he will become the seventh pitcher in St. Louis Cardinals history to start a game after his 41st birthday. (And hes been getting his work in, at least for the most part.) Dont hold your breath. The only active pitchers behind Wainwright (2,375 2/3) in the 2,000-inning club are 36-year-old David Price (2,103 1/3), 35-year-old Johnny Cueto (2,034 1/3) and 32-year-old Madison Bumgarner (2,034). The Hall of Fame should immortalize the greatest starting pitchers of each era. {* backButton *} Clayton Kershaw is this generations Sandy Koufax; he could retire right now and hed make the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Listen to the Seeing Red podcast on the Cardinals, featuring Will Leitch and Miklasz. Ive lost track. He had one brother, Trey, who was seven years his senior. Ill assume that FanGraphss weirdly defensive stance against Wainwrights pursuit of bulletin board material has subsided by then. Ive covered the Mets for a variety of outlets since 1997. I suppose well get an update after Wainwright returns to camp after competing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. Hes pitched for five teams in two different leagues, which is unusual for a pitcher with such a successful resume. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, He has a $217 million contract with the Boston Red Sox, and to make the Hall of Fame, he may need another Cy Young award and a dominant performance in a World Series championship. Your login session has expired. Has Adam Wainwright done enough to deserve a place in the Hall of Fame? But Adam Wainwrights story also isnt complete. Were just giving him a little extra time in between appearances to rebound from his first time out. He went 119-66 with a 2.96 ERA from 2007-15, a span in which only Kershaw had a lower ERA among pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched. Strasburgs 2.86 FIP suggests hes outperformed his 3.18 ERA, and his strikeout rate has been stellar. Queried about his Cooperstown credentials during the Cardinals' visit to Citi Field last month, Wainwright grinned while seemingly acknowledging his counting numbers he has 184 wins and 2,004. Its only the normal spring-training grind, building up arm strength, minor inflammation, no reason to think hell have to go on the IL, our trainers feel good about it. Sabathia has largely been a disappointment since signing a nine-figure extension with the team, and he likely wont be retained when his contract expires after this season. The Cardinals trailed 5-0 on a pair of home runs by Tyrone Taylor, but St. Louis rallied to win its 12th straight, 8-5. Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright are back together, and they will start Opening Day together for the first time since 2009 on Thursday. Will this happen? 2nd stage: Everything is still on track. We use cookies to improve your experience. And if the Sox do pick up his option, he is by no means a lock to pass Eckersley in saves next year if Hendriks gets most of the chances. But is it a Hall of Fame caliber career? The just-turned-40-year-old is currently in the midst of a late-career renaissance (2.97 ERA, 3.1 WAR), leaving many to wonder what might have been if not for the injuries that effectively cost him three seasons from ages 29 to 36. He made his 55 million dollar fortune with All-Star, St. Louis Cardinals, NL wins leader. Adam Wainwright. He is known for being a Baseball Player. March 2, 2023 | 00:00:10. The key number regarding Gooden is 48.0, which is the average of his career bWAR, his bWAR7, his career fWAR, and his fWAR7. Im skeptical only because of the history of how the Cardinals do this when a pitcher doesnt pitch, or takes a delay before his next assignment. Jansens 30 saves have pushed him to 14th on the all-time list, five away from the next rung and 26 away from cracking the top 10. The hot air balloon . This may not seem particularly grandiose, and probably not even close to Cooperstown worthiness, but it should be noted that with sixty-five elected, starting pitcher is far and away the most commonly enshrined position in the Hall (it has also, pre-bullpen expansion, been the most common position, so this shouldnt be too surprising). In the spirit of giving my readers what they want, heres a lightning round, where Ill keep things uncharacteristically brief. Wainwright could become the sixth to add the Hall of Fame to their resume. Privacy Policy He became a member of the Cardinals when the Atlanta Braves traded him for J.D. Focusing on what hes better at: Scherzer is just 19 strikeouts away from 3,000 and should reach the milestone this month, surpassing the likes of Juan Marichal, Roy Halladay, and Bob Feller on the JAWS leaderboard. Hes undergone Tommy John surgery, and his career total of 76 wins is underwhelming. All stats used here were sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball Net and Spotrac. by Retrosheet. Perhaps a new metric will be devised that paints Wainwright in an extraordinary new lightI cant really imagine what said metric would be, but Yadier Molinas career FanGraphs WAR shot up 18.4 wins in one day on which meaningful baseball games werent even played, so I am not going to dismiss the possibility hastily. Adam Wainwright 141-80, 3.23 ERA, 1,547 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA 3x All-Star, 2 Gold Gloves, 2 rings Injuries have plagued Adam Wainwright more than the other pitchers on this list; he's going to be 36 in a few months and he's logged just 1,800 innings due to Tommy John surgery (2011) and an Achilles tendon rupture (2015). Always ranking QBs. Wainwright was between 38 and 40 years old in this stretch. Hernandez also holds the distinction of having been the last MLB pitcher to throw a perfect game (2012). 122-66, 3.24 ERA, 1,621 strikeouts, 123 adjusted ERA. I wouldnt expect Wainwright to be at his best at this stage. Adam Wainwright is the quintessential "Hall of Fame candidate for Cardinals fans" Hall of Fame candidate of the current team. So basically what Im saying is that if Adam Wainwright has a once-every-seventy-five-years season, he should probably make it into Cooperstown. Hes got a long ways to go to reach 200 wins (he has 112), but hes already at 2,031 strikeouts. Decade-plus Eagles writer. Were not concerned. Adam Wainwright is going to have such an interesting Hall of Fame case once he retires. Well have to wait and see. . But I want to consider Adam Wainwrights Hall of Fame case as a purely statistical candidate based on the statistics we currently have. Im not sure its a good idea for Wainwright to proceed with his WBC plans, but the Cardinals wont stop him from going. But until we see Jack pitching in games against opposing hitters in game conditions down there in Florida and recovering on time to do it again, and again, and again Ill have to take the wait-and-see approach. FASTBALLS JET ACROSS the baseball atmosphere in this era, booming into catchers' mitts at 100 mph or faster, and amid that sound of speed, there is Adam Wainwright's curveball. To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. Kimbrel has an option for next year, which I think is likely to be exercised, so he wont be a free agent until 2023. That being said, the question I had is what a retirement for Adam Wainwright . All rights reserved. That may be what landed him on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation this year. With a big age-28 season (5.2 WAR and counting) driven by his 31 homers, 138 OPS+, and 9 DRS, Ramirez is making notable progress toward Cooperstown, particularly given that hes already banked two seven-win seasons. Central Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto headlines the list of players in the National League West who are on track to have a chance to make it into baseball's Hall of Fame. He'll retire with honors and accolades, becoming a fine coach and St. Louis area legend. Can Adam Wainwright join St. Louis Cardinals teammates in Hall of Fame? It is possible that the same will be the case for a third Cardinals legend. And right now, he simply isnt there. Wainwright has certainly had a long and successful career, but has it been enough to warrant enshirement in the Hall of Fame? He was merely a good pitcher on the Detroit Tigers, vastly overshadowed by teammate Justin Verlander. Despite dealing with shoulder soreness and some rough stretches, Greinke the active leader in JAWS has pitched an AL-high 159.2 innings, though he will probably get overtaken after landing on the COVID-19 IL on Tuesday. I am a big fan, not as a universal absolute but as a general guideline, of the Jay Jaffe JAWS system, a thing I have mentioned repeatedly in my writing, though I also prefer to use a hybrid model which incorporates a players career performance and his seven best individual seasons (his peak) as measured not only by Baseball Reference but by FanGraphs (in most non-catcher cases, over the course of a career, this doesnt make a huge difference, but in the most discussed cases, the margins are so thin that I am happy to look at as much data as possible). Hes also climbed from 12th to ninth in saves (372) and should easily move past Joe Nathan (377) and Dennis Eckersley (390) within the next year. Adam Wainwright Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right 6-7 , 230lb (201cm, 104kg) Team: St. Louis Cardinals (majors) More bio, uniform, draft, salary info 3x All-Star 2006 World Series 2x Gold Glove Silver Slugger 60 50 Become a Stathead & surf this site ad-free. Even if he is able to reach the 200 win threshold, will Wainwright find himself enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame? Gibson got his 2,000th strikeout when Pittsburghs Roberto Clemente was called out on July 13, 1969. The good news is that even with a modest 2.6 WAR this year, hes in his seventh-best season and can make tracks towards the third base peak standard (43.1 WAR). Max Scherzer, already on the Cooperstown fast track before he was traded by the Nationals to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, continued his march towards inner-circle status by authoring a dominant post-acquisition stretch for his new team (7-0 with a 1.98 in 11 starts for the Dodgers, who won each of his outings) on par with Doyle Alexander in 1987, Randy Johnson in 1998 and CC Sabathia in 2008. The Cardinals looked like one of the best teams in the National League throughout the 2022 regular season, finishing with a record of 93-69, winning the NL Central Division in the process. He has similar numbers (albeit slightly worse) than Roy Halladay. Via his 10 All-Star selections, nine Gold Gloves, two World Series rings, and reputation for handling pitching staffs, Molinas already been anointed presumptive first-ballot honoree status. Of the four active starters who are within hailing distance of the JAWS standard (61.1), none has done more to help himself in 2021 than Scherzer, who has been stellar in his age-36 season, pitching to a 2.40 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 146 innings for the Nationals and Dodgers. Adam Parrish Wainwright was born on August 30, 1981, in Brunswick, Georgia. Adam Wainwright in 2021 His lifetime ERA is 3.35 and has dropped nearly a tenth of a point over the last two seasons. I highly doubt it. Be the first one to comment on this story. Required fields are marked *. NeverSober1900. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. But compared to Molina or especially Pujols, Adam Wainwright is an underdog. Adam Wainwright will return for his 19th season with the. He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011. Well know more about Jacks Comeback after he makes his first two or three pitching appearances in the Florida game. Its just hard to pitch that long nowadays, without injuries especially. Adam Wainwright, is probably not a Hall of Famer and his 36.7 JAWS likely shouldn't be used as the new . While wins arent everything, Ive chosen to list them chronologically by career win total as a benchmark of evaluation. How Corbin Burnes became an ace by making his bed, Top moments from Brady, Manning, Jordan and other athletes hosting 'Saturday Night Live', Fantasy baseball rankings, projections, strategy and cheat sheets, Spring batting averages, runs up amid shift limits. Adam Wainwright Stats. By what Ill provisionally call R(eliever)-JAWS, hes climbed from 22nd all-time to 15th, which is still well below the standard for the eight enshrined relievers (29.7). Chapman notched his 300th save on August 26, but hes had an unimpressive season, walking 16.2% of hitters en route to a 3.68 ERA and 4.16, all career worsts. It happens a lot. You may have created an account with another Rogers Media account that can be used to sign in here. At least hes in better shape than 31-year-old Freddie Freeman (41.8/32.1/37.0, +1.5 JAWS), who only recently surpassed last years 3.3 WAR. . (Beltran) was frozen on an 0-2 Adam Wainwright curveball with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th. Velocity? Adam Wainwright is the greatest St. Louis Cardinals pitcher since Bob Gibson, and arguably the greatest St. Louis Cardinals pitcher in history other than Bob Gibson. Actually, its two starting pitchers: Jack Flaherty and Adam Wainwright. Even so, five catchers including the younger and still-productive Buster Posey outrank him in the framing-inclusive version of my metric, and with an 80 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR this year, plus plans to retire after 2022, he might not even catch Russell Martin (49.1) or Joe Mauer (49.3) in the rankings. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. With eight All-Star selections, three Cy Young awards, and a World Series ring, Kershaw is probably a lock for election already, but reaching and surpassing some major career milestones would further elevate him in the pantheon. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the show podcast at 590thefan.com or the 590 app. A Hall of Fame-bound pitcher is slated to take the mound in the top of the first inning of tonights NL wild card game. Wins may not matter as much these days, but his 195 wins would make him just the seventh player to be inducted as a starting pitcher with fewer than 200 victories. 100-70, 2.99 ERA, 1,409 strikeouts, 123 adjusted ERA. Please logout and login again. 1st stage: All good. Replacing those lost or disrupted seasons with three average Wainwright seasons a 13-7 mark with 138 strikeouts over 164 innings would have Wainwright at 223-126 with 2,418 strikeouts. They cited various ailments that impacted Wainos performance. Flaherty pitched 348 innings over the 2018 and 2019 seasons. I try to stay out of it as much as possible.. He probably wont gain much more ground this year even assuming he does return, and as with the pitchers on either side of him in this list, free agency looms, though it seems unthinkable the Dodgers will let him depart. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Paul Goldschmidt, first base (49.1 career | 40.6 Peak | 44.9 JAWS, +2.2 JAWS). 141-80, 3.23 ERA, 1,547 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. The contact rate against him on pitches in the strike zone last season 91 percent was the highest against him during his 17-season MLB career. However, the future Cardinals Hall of Famer is coming off a 2022 season in which he lost velocity, suffered a decline in swing . Reports on Wednesday, October 26th, say that Wainwright will return to the Cardinals for his 19th MLB season with the club, as he continues to chase his 200th career win. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. DUNEDIN., Fla. Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. left the spring training game against Tampa Bay with right knee discomfort. For the last 35 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans. If he can maintain this kind of dominance for a few more years, hell get to Cooperstown. Adam Wainwright was born on the 30th of August, 1981. It is not as though a 6.4 WAR season alone would do the trickwhile this would put Wainwright over 50 bWAR and at 56.4 fWAR (assuming he hit 6.4 on both metrics), the impact on Wainwrights peak would be much smaller, since he was reasonably good in his seventh best season under both metrics (3.0 bWAR, 3.9 fWAR). The content on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. In that piece, I highlighted 10 position players, some of whom have gained significant ground via JAWS, others who reached major milestones or simply returned to productivity after injury-plagued stretches. Hes 28th in R-JAWS, 1.2 points behind the lowest-ranked enshrined reliever (Bruce Sutter), and at age 33, needs to rebound if hes to have a shot at election that is, if voters will overlook his 2016 suspension under MLBs domestic violence policy, which is uncharted territory for Hall candidates. The greatest lineups ever? This year he was so good that he accrued 5.1 WAR (including 0.6 on the offensive side) in his 15 starts before going down, his fourth-highest total. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports. . The best pitcher in MLB? It's an ex-Chip's Worldand we're just picking up the pieces. Since then, hes made the All-Star team every year, led the league in wins on three occasions, and won a Cy Young award in each league. 76-43, 3.18 ERA, 1,183 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. Adam Wainwright joined Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukee's Luis Uras in the fourth inning Thursday. His 133 OPS+ is a step down from his 201218 prime (146), but his .493 SLG is his best since leaving Arizona. Yadier Molinas career FanGraphs WAR shot up 18.4 wins in one day, The 2022 St. Louis Cardinals and the next generational passage St. Louis Bullpen. Its early in spring training. Hes endured shoulder miseries and a strained oblique. Assuming he pitches in 2022, a year in which I am assuming Major League Baseball will indeed be played, which he has already announced will be his last, Wainwrights first round of Hall of Fame votes would not even be revealed until 2028. He posted a 195-117 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.216 WHiP, striking out 2147 batters with 695 walks in his 2567.1 innings. He was hit hard four balls hit off him registered exit velocities higher than 104 mph, including a 112.1 mph solo moonshot of a homer off the bat of Jos Abreu. The 2022 campaign was supposed to be the last for Adam Wainwright as well, although he has left the door slightly open for a return next year. SUMMARY 2022 Career WAR 1.8 46.7 W 11 195 L 12 117 ERA 3.71 3.38 G 32 457 GS When Adam Wainwright decides to hang up his cleats, the St.. Cy Young awards, no-hitters, and ERA titles may be better methods for evaluating the 21st century pitcher than the sheer outdated statistic of wins.. But, while neither was young, per se, by baseball standards (it was deGroms age-30 season and Scherzers age-33), there is a big leap to get to Adam Wainwrights age-40 season which looms ahead. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted But Wainwright proved his solid 2020 wasnt a brief mirage. The bad news is that hell finish his age-35 season still short of 1,200 hits (hes at 1,156), meaning that hed have to average at least 160 a total he hasnt reached since 2016 through his age-40 season just to reach the all-important 2,000. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. But Wainwright still had good value because he supplied 192 innings. As his 136 OPS+ and 26 homers attest, he can still rake even at age 40, but with 443 career dingers, hes two seasons away from reaching 500 (42% odds, via ZiPS). Sale went two years and a day between major league outings due to elbow inflammation, a flexor tendon strain, and Tommy John surgery, but hes made a solid return so far, with a 2.53 ERA and 27.9% strikeout rate through four starts. But the guys that have got in recently just have been the best at the craft for a decade, Wainwright said. But I just want to know how far back I would have to dig to find an age-40 season in which a pitcher was good enough to get Adam Wainwright to this level of Hall of Fame worthiness. He was the MVP of the 2014 World Series after two dominant starts and then five scoreless innings off the bench in Game 7, and hes been a key contributor to three championship teams. Im far less convinced he deserves that, but using FanGraphs framing-inclusive WAR for catchers (supplemented by Baseball Prospectus pre-2008 framing data), its clear that he deserves a boost beyond off-the-shelf JAWS. Injuries have me dubious that Chris Sale will ever accumulate the WAR necessary to reach the Cooperstown threshold, but hes only barely going to be 33 come Opening Day, so Im not closing the book just yet. To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. When it comes down to it, Sabathia may find himself in a logjam of other similar pitchers, and if he does get in, it may take him some time. 2000-2023 Rogers Media. When he calls it a career, Wainwright won't be a serious contender for baseball's Hall of Fame, unlike Molina. But even if we throw 2020 out, Flaherty averaged only 57 innings of work over the last two years. Astros @ Cardinals. Still, just one top-10 Cy Young award finish wont get him in the Hall of Fame. Though hes overcome health scares and worked hard to expand his arsenal to become less reliant upon his cutter, Jansen has continued to take Dodgers fans on a rollercoaster this season.